Do green parties in government benefit from natural catastrophes? How wildfires are linked to voting

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This paper investigates whether wildfires are linked to increases in vote share for a green party in government. We argue that natural disasters move climate change action up on voters’ agendas, consequently affecting electoral behavior. Making use of the impact of an intense wildfire season in Sweden in 2018, we analyze changes in propensity to vote for a green governing party after experiencing wildfires in the election year. The Green party’s vote share is significantly larger than expected in affected municipalities compared to
unaffected municipalities, with an overall effect size of about 1 percentage point in the national election and 1.2 percentage points in the local election. These effect sizes are substantial given typical green party vote shares. Meanwhile, the incumbent Social Democratic party appears to have been electorally punished for
the fires. The findings contribute to the literature on natural disasters and climate opinion, as well as on the impact of local conditions on electoral behavior.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
Artikelnummer102749
TidsskriftElectoral Studies
Vol/bind88
Antal sider12
ISSN0261-3794
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 2024

Bibliografisk note

Funding Information:
☆ No funding was received for this project. However, we acknowledge and appreciate the help and comments on earlier drafts from colleagues at the University of Gothenburg; University of Copenhagen with special thanks to Nikolaj Arpe Harmon, Frederik Hjorth and Gregory Eady; Peace Research Institute Oslo, especially Haakon Gjerløw and Jonas Vestby. Lastly, we also thank Jonathan Polk for facilitating the presentation in Gothenburg and Antonio Valentim for useful input in the very early stages of the project.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 The Authors

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