With the military escalation in the Red Sea caused by the Houthi attacks on merchant vessels and ongoing coercion by Iran, the Western Indian Ocean seems further away than ever from its self-declared goal to be a region of peace and prosperity.

Growing maritime insecurity is also fed by the persistence of other blue crimes: smuggling activities, sanction evasion and fish crimes. Another troubling problem resurfaced in the last weeks of 2023: Somali pirates, long believed to be successful suppressed, are back in action.

Political declarations from the European Union and the Indian Ocean Commission, both crucial inter-governmental counter-piracy actors are urgently needed. The informal groups, such as the Djibouti Code of Conduct or the Contact Group on Illicit Maritime Activities should consider emergency meetings. A stronger naval presence will also be needed, and those navies currently not bound with resources in the Red Sea, including the navies of China, Japan, or Korea should consider supporting the Indian navy in counter-piracy.